by Interstride
In higher ed, the enrollment cliff is defined as a decline in the number of students enrolling in college. The word “cliff” sounds like a sudden sharp decline, but in reality, the enrollment cliff is more of a gradual downturn. Admissions professionals who are faced with enrollment quotas are likely concerned about the enrollment cliff and looking for ways to lessen its effects.
After decades of steady increase, postsecondary school enrollment has been dropping every year since 2010 according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics. All schools are not equally affected by the enrollment cliff. Some schools have already been feeling it for years while others may just be starting to see the effects. Community colleges, four-year undergraduate institutions, and those in more remote locations could be hit the hardest while elite universities with strong brand recognition will be less impacted. Colleges and universities on the East Coast of the US and in the Midwest may experience the ramifications of the enrollment cliff more than schools in other areas due to more significant declines in population and students leaving the regions for college.
Why is college enrollment declining?
There are several reasons for the decline in college enrollment. First, the birth rate in the US has been declining since the 2008 recession. The CDC reports that in 2009, there were 4,247,694 live births while in 2022 there were only 3,667,758 live births. Children born in 2008 or later will begin to enter college in the next 2-3 years, causing the enrollment cliff to continue through at least 2029.
The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the enrollment cliff. Decreased immigration and vacillating international enrollment due to the pandemic and increasing anti-immigration sentiments from the US government reduced the number of international students enrolling in US colleges from 2016-2022. Lastly, because of rising tuition costs, more domestic and international students may have doubts regarding the value of a college degree.
How international students can be a solution to the enrollment cliff
If there are not enough students from the US applying to your institution, attracting international students is a way to increase volume. While the number of domestic college-going students is shrinking, the number of international college-going students is expanding rapidly, especially in certain countries like India which had a 35% increase in international students in the US in 2022-2023. There are also many bonus benefits to bringing more international students to your institution including increased diversity, new perspectives on campus, and enriched classroom discussions.
Data from the Institute of International Education shows that the 2022-2023 school year saw an increase in international student enrollment in the US to pre-pandemic levels. Both undergraduate and graduate-level international enrollment rates have risen, but graduate enrollment of international students is growing at a faster rate than undergraduate. This makes international students a key resource in keeping up with enrollment quotas.
Demand for international education is still rising among international students, and the US remains a top destination for international students due to a variety of reasons including the many world-class universities. However, other countries like Canada, the UK, and Australia are increasingly becoming popular options for international students. US institutions must stay competitive in order to attract international students as a way to counter the enrollment cliff. Below, we offer tips for attracting undergraduate and graduate level international students to your institution.
Tips for attracting undergraduate international students
Research shows that international students looking to study in the US are seeking high-quality academic programs, multicultural experiences, and employment opportunities. Therefore, institutions should highlight the features and reputations of their undergraduate academic programs, internship opportunities, employment outcomes for graduates, and the diversity of the school’s student body and faculty.
Additionally, undergraduate international students will likely be living away from their families for the first time. When recruiting international students who are still in high school, show how the school supports students’ community development. Make sure admissions information and marketing efforts are tailored specifically for international students as they have unique needs, challenges, and questions about going to college in the US. Intentionally connect prospective international students with current international students to have their questions answered by someone who has been in their shoes.
Institutions should also highlight the variety of academic programs they offer, especially those in disciplines or fields that might be harder to find in other countries such as top arts programs that prepare students to apply art in tech, design, or business. STEM programs may also be particularly appealing to international students. There is a shortage of qualified STEM workers in the US, and international students in STEM majors get an extra two years of OPT work authorization after graduation.
Tips for attracting graduate international students
There are actually more international students enrolled in the US at the graduate level than undergraduate. A report done by Interstride and NAGAP found that 58% of international graduate student respondents said a better understanding of career outcomes would have influenced their choice of institutions. Therefore, institutions should emphasize career outcomes when recruiting students. Possible employment outcomes to highlight include:
- Percentage of students who have full-time job offers at graduation
- Percentage of international students with CPT and OPT authorization
- Percentage of international alumni with H-1B and green card sponsorships
- Average salary of alumni from the program
Highlighting the career outcomes of graduates can help prospective students see the value of a degree from your institution despite the cost of tuition. Finally, for both undergraduate and graduate admissions, highlight international faculty and staff. This helps prospective international students see that the college or university values international perspectives and diverse backgrounds.
Other creative ways of combating the enrollment cliff
When combating the enrollment cliff, you might want to attract more international students, but you also need to retain them, so they are enrolled for the entirety of their program. Low student retention caused by students leaving school for the workforce, dropping out for other reasons, or transferring to a different school can lead to loss of revenue for the university and exacerbate the effects of the enrollment cliff. Consider these retention strategies for international students at your institution to make international students a part of not just your admissions strategy, but your overall enrollment management strategy.
Some schools are attempting to combat the enrollment cliff by adding more distance education options. However, keep in mind that international students are limited in how many online classes they can take each semester.
Final thoughts
Declining enrollment can be alarming to admissions professionals, but with the right combination of strategies, you can combat the enrollment cliff. Collaborate with Interstride for Admissions to support undergrad and graduate-level international students from admissions through graduation and beyond! Through our platform, which can easily be embedded into your existing admissions portal, you can provide prospective students with the specific information they want including instant communication options and access to current students to ask questions about the school and student life.
